How Our Model is Performing in 2026
Scoring ourselves against reality
Tracking Our Accuracy
Every prediction we publish is scored. Our Brier score, calibration curve, and comparison against baselines are all public on the Track Record page.
The 2026 regulation reset created unique challenges for our model. Historical data became partially obsolete overnight. Our Elo dampening and dynamic weighting mechanisms were designed for exactly this scenario — but the proof is in the scoring.
Lessons Learned
Each scored race teaches us something about where the model succeeds and where it struggles. Rookie predictions, team form estimation after regulation changes, and safety car impact modelling are the areas where we see the most room for improvement.
We publish these reflections honestly because transparency is the only way to build trust in quantitative predictions.