Analysis & Methodology
Long-form analysis of Formula 1 through the lens of data. How our models work, what the numbers reveal, and where the sport is heading.
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43 piecesR15: Qatar Airways Azerbaijan Grand Prix — Preview
What the model expects at Round 15
R14: TAG Heuer Gran Premio de España — Deep Dive
Predictions vs reality at Round 14
Championship Check-In: Where Things Stand
The latest data on the 2026 title race
R13: Pirelli Gran Premio d'Italia — Deep Dive
Predictions vs reality at Round 13
R14: TAG Heuer Gran Premio de España — Preview
What the data says about Round 14
R13: Pirelli Gran Premio d'Italia — Preview
What the data says about Round 13
Inside the Prediction Engine
How data becomes probability
R12: Heineken Dutch Grand Prix — Deep Dive
Predictions vs reality at Round 12
R12: Heineken Dutch Grand Prix — Preview
What the data says about Round 12
Inside the Prediction Engine
How data becomes probability
Inside the Prediction Engine
How data becomes probability
R11: AWS Hungarian Grand Prix — Deep Dive
Predictions vs reality at Round 11
R11: AWS Hungarian Grand Prix — Preview
What the data says about Round 11
R10: Moët & Chandon Belgian Grand Prix — Deep Dive
Predictions vs reality at Round 10
R10: Moët & Chandon Belgian Grand Prix — Preview
What the data says about Round 10
R09: Pirelli British Grand Prix — Preview
What the data says about Round 9
R08: Lenovo Austrian Grand Prix — Preview
What the data says about Round 8
Inside the Prediction Engine
How data becomes probability
Championship Check-In: Where Things Stand
The latest data on the 2026 title race
R07: MSC Cruises Gran Premio de Barcelona-Catalunya — Preview
What the data says about Round 7
Hadjar's Swimming Pool Shunt Just Rewrote Red Bull's Monaco Weekend
A repeat-offender pattern at inside barriers meets the one circuit that punishes hesitation hardest.
R06: Louis Vuitton Grand Prix de Monaco — Preview
What the data says about Round 6
R05: Lenovo Grand Prix du Canada — Deep Dive
Predictions vs reality at Round 5
The Wall That Eats Champions: Why Our Montreal Model Just Got Messier
Five rookies, one concrete block, and a safety-car prior we've had to rewrite from scratch
The 7MJ Reset: Why Our Model Just Threw Out Three Races of Data
Miami's rule tweaks worked. Now the FIA wants more — and our pre-Miami pace database is suddenly half-useful.
Inside the Engine: How 52 Features Become a Suzuka Forecast
A look under the bonnet of the model predicting Round 3 in Japan — and why we publish every miss.
Hadjar's Miami Disaster Exposes the Real Red Bull Story: The Upgrade Works
A pit-lane start, a Lap 6 wall, and a 0.825s gap to Verstappen tell two very different RB22 stories.
Leclerc's Four-Point Miami Meltdown and What It Tells Our Model About 2026 Stewarding
A 20-second penalty turned a podium fight into P8. The ripple effects reach Montreal and beyond.
Verstappen's Miami Meltdown: Why a Five-Second Penalty Tells a Bigger Story
A pit-exit breach drops Max to sixth, but the model sees a deeper Red Bull problem heading into Monaco.
A 2mm Mistake: How Red Bull's Upgrade Cost Hadjar 13 Grid Slots
Floor protrusion sends the Frenchman to P22, but a Florida storm could rewrite the recovery maths.
Audi's Miami Meltdown: A 4.8 BarA Number That Just Reshaped Our Reliability Priors
Bortoleto's DSQ and Hulkenberg's fiery DNS turn a bad Saturday into a model-rewriting weekend
Championship Check-In — April Pause Update
The latest data on the 2026 title race
How Our Model is Performing in 2026
Scoring ourselves against reality
Inside the Prediction Engine — Methodology Deep Dive
How data becomes probability
Inside the Prediction Engine — Team Form Analysis
How data becomes probability
Inside the Prediction Engine — Historical Patterns
How data becomes probability
Championship Check-In — Post-R03 Standings
The latest data on the 2026 title race
R03: Aramco Japanese Grand Prix — Deep Dive
Predictions vs reality at Round 3
R03: Aramco Japanese Grand Prix — Preview
What the data says about Round 3
Antonelli's First Win in Numbers
How the second-year Mercedes driver broke through in China
The 2026 Regulation Reset
How new rules broke every prediction model — including ours
How We Predict F1 Races
A complete guide to our machine learning methodology
Mercedes' 2026 Comeback
From P5 in the constructors' to the fastest car on the grid
New articles published weekly during the F1 season.