Track Record
Every prediction we publish is scored against reality. This page is our permanent, public accountability record. No retroactive adjustments. No cherry-picking.
Every prediction is scored against the actual outcome and surfaced on the chart below. We share both hits and misses — the regulation reset taught the model new patterns and our rookie predictions are still calibrating, so each scored race shifts the picture.
Track record available after the first scored race. Every prediction we publish will be scored and displayed here.
Transparency
Predictions published before each race. Track record computed automatically after each race using Brier score. We never modify predictions retroactively. Every probability is timestamped and immutable.
Scoring methodology: Brier score = mean squared error of probabilistic predictions. Skill score = 1 - (model Brier / baseline Brier). Grid baseline uses qualifying order.