01
Formula 1
Official race results, championship state and model forecasts — one verified public data surface.
- Status
- Live
- Endpoints
- 88
- Since
- 1950
The Data Driver — probability-based Formula 1 predictions and public track record
Formula 1 Gran Premio de la Ciudad de México 2026 · Mexico City · R19
BRIER 0.039VS GRID +18%15 SCORED
Antonelli
Historical forecast for Formula 1 Gran Premio de la Ciudad de México 2026. This completed-round model output is preserved for inspection and is not live.
01 / DATA LAB
Every number on this site, yours to explore.
Explore the championship, race pace, strategy and head-to-head data behind the season. Follow published results to their sources and export the views you need.
- Open source · MIT
- Works in Claude & ChatGPT
- CSV · JSON · public API
Championship progression, 2026
Grand Prix points, cumulative · 19 of 19 completed rounds
Values table · 6 series · 19 rows
| Round | ANT Kimi Antonelli | VER Max Verstappen | HAM Lewis Hamilton | RUS George Russell | LEC Charles Leclerc | NOR Lando Norris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 15 | 10 |
| R2 | 43 | 8 | 27 | 43 | 27 | 10 |
| R3 | 68 | 12 | 35 | 55 | 42 | 20 |
| R4 | 93 | 22 | 43 | 67 | 46 | 38 |
| R5 | 118 | 37 | 61 | 67 | 58 | 38 |
| R6 | 143 | 37 | 79 | 67 | 58 | 38 |
| R7 | 143 | 49 | 104 | 85 | 58 | 53 |
| R8 | 158 | 67 | 114 | 110 | 62 | 59 |
| R9 | 158 | 67 | 129 | 128 | 87 | 71 |
| R10 | 183 | 82 | 141 | 128 | 105 | 77 |
| R11 | 198 | 100 | 151 | 134 | 117 | 102 |
| R12 | 216 | 100 | 163 | 149 | 127 | 127 |
| R13 | 241 | 115 | 171 | 167 | 127 | 139 |
| R14 | 266 | 133 | 171 | 177 | 139 | 154 |
| R15 | 276 | 151 | 179 | 202 | 151 | 154 |
| R16 | 294 | 176 | 194 | 202 | 163 | 156 |
| R17 | 309 | 201 | 202 | 204 | 181 | 168 |
| R18 | 334 | 216 | 214 | 208 | 199 | 178 |
| R19 | 349 | 241 | 232 | 216 | 211 | 188 |
- ANT
- VER
- HAM
- RUS (dashed line)
- LEC (dashed line)
- NOR
02 / FORECAST
Formula 1 Gran Premio de la Ciudad de México 2026
The stage number, row by row
The same win probabilities that drive the forecast above, plotted against the full scale. A short bar means a genuinely open race, not a formatting choice.
Win probability
Absolute scale · 0–100%
01
Antonelli
mercedes
24.8%
02Hamilton
ferrari
17.2%
03Leclerc
ferrari
13.9%
04Russell
mercedes
11.7%
05Norris
mclaren
10.8%
Σ
Rest of field
Not shown above
21.6%
03 / SIMULATION
Outcome uncertainty
One probability is not one outcome
The row above is only the first column of a simulated race. Here is the rest of it — the joint finishing spread the model stored, not just a single winner number.
| Driver | Win | Podium | Points | DNF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | 24.8% | 58.9% | 94.8% | 5.0% |
| Lewis Hamilton | 17.2% | 48.1% | 94.4% | 5.2% |
| Charles Leclerc | 13.9% | 43.0% | 94.6% | 4.8% |
| George Russell | 11.7% | 37.2% | 94.4% | 4.8% |
| Lando Norris | 10.8% | 36.3% | 94.3% | 4.9% |
Model output · joint race simulations
Select a driver to inspect how uncertain their result is. Every position bar is taken directly from the model; DNF is reported separately.
Top five 78.4% · Rest of field 21.6%Full-field probabilities. Values are not reweighted.
Classified finish distribution
Kimi Antonelli
Bar height = share of simulated races
| Position | Probability |
|---|---|
| P1 | 25.0% |
| P2 | 18.8% |
| P3 | 15.1% |
| P4 | 11.7% |
| P5 | 9.8% |
| P6 | 6.4% |
| P7 | 4.6% |
| P8 | 2.2% |
| P9 | 0.8% |
| P10 | 0.3% |
| P11 | 0.1% |
| P12 | <0.1% |
| P13 | <0.1% |
| P14 | 0% |
| P15 | 0% |
| P16 | 0% |
| P17 | 0% |
| P18 | 0% |
| P19 | 0% |
| P20 | 0% |
- Model
- Ensemble + Monte Carlo
- Field
- 22 drivers
- Resolution
- P1–P20 + DNF
- Reading
- Probability, not certainty
04 / DRIVERS
Deep dive
Now hold one driver still
The same simulation, read one driver at a time: win, podium, points and DNF as the model published them, with the finish and score it expects.
Antonelli
mercedes · #12
Forecast rank01 of 05
- Win
- 24.8%
- Podium
- 58.9%
- Points
- 94.8%
- DNF
- 5.0%
- Expected finish
- P4.2
- Expected points
- 15.2
- Implied odds
- 4.0/1
Stored model output · not reweighted · an em dash means the model published no value
06 / COVERAGE
Verified public endpoints
Nothing appears live until the evidence is.
Where all of it comes from
Every series in this manifest is backed by a production pipeline and an inspectable public API. Planned coverage stays off the page.
Status and endpoint counts are read from the public API, not maintained as marketing copy.
Inspect API coverage ↗Historical forecast data. Brier: 0.039; vs Grid: +18%; Scored: 15; Model: Ensemble; Field: 22 drivers; Race: R19; Antonelli: 24.8%; Hamilton: 17.2%; Leclerc: 13.9%; Russell: 11.7%; Norris: 10.8%.
Follow the forecast from its inputs to the result. The model, its calibration and every scored race remain open to inspection.