Russell favourite
at Montreal 40%
Our model analyses 52 features. Machine learning predictions. Probability-based forecasts. Transparent track record.
The Data Driver predicts every Formula 1 race using machine learning. We publish probability distributions before each Grand Prix, then score ourselves against reality. No hiding, no cherry-picking.
The 2026 regulations have reshuffled the competitive order. Mercedes dominate the early rounds with two consecutive 1-2 finishes. Antonelli won in his second race. The data is still catching up to the new reality — and that is exactly what makes this season fascinating to model.
4 races scored · Brier 0.035 · +26% vs grid baseline
Lenovo Grand Prix
George Russell
Kimi Antonelli
Oscar Piastri
Lando Norris
Lewis Hamilton
Pole Position
Russell
40%
Strategy
One-stop
Lenovo Grand Prix tyre window
48%
Safety Car
Probable
Lenovo Grand Prix historical SC rate
55%
0.035
Brier score
26%
Skill score
4
Races scored
26% better than grid baseline · Validated on 114 backtested races
Primary data
Direct connection to primary F1 sources: FIA live timing, formula1.com official results, FIA stewards documents. No third-party API dependencies.
Open models
Elo rating system calibrated on 250+ races. 52 features. 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per race. Every factor and its weight are available in the analysis.
Public results
Every past prediction is scored using Brier score and published. The full track record is accessible — no cherry-picking.