Race Review/15 September 2026/8 min
R16: TAG Heuer Gran Premio de España — Deep Dive
Predictions vs reality at Round 16
Race Summary
Kimi Antonelli won the TAG Heuer Gran Premio de España from P2, scoring 25 points for Mercedes.
The podium was completed by Max Verstappen (Red Bull) and Lando Norris (McLaren).
Predictions vs Reality
Our model gave Kimi Antonelli a 29.2% chance of winning before the race, with an expected finishing position of 3.71.
Biggest Over-Performer
Max Verstappen beat the model's expectation by 5.2 positions (expected 7.2, finished 2).
Championship Impact
Kimi Antonelli leads the championship with 292 points.
George Russell trails by 81 points.
Lewis Hamilton trails by 101 points.
Lando Norris trails by 106 points.
Elo Movers
Kimi Antonelli gained +8.0 Elo points after this race, now at 1502.