#12Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team
Kimi Antonelli
Claimed his maiden F1 victory at the Chinese Grand Prix in his second season at Mercedes. After a solid 2025 that included a podium in Brazil, the 2026 regulation reset has unlocked a new level. His qualifying pace now matches teammate Russell, and the title fight within Mercedes is a genuine storyline.
UPCOMING
Next Race Predictions
P(Win)
24%
P(Podium)
62%
E[Position]
2.8
E[Points]
17
Win probability24%
Podium probability62%
Points finish94%
Fastest lap18%
DNF risk3%
Position Distribution
Probability of finishing in each position (10,000 simulations)
24%P1
21%P2
17%P3
19%P4-6
13%P7-10
6%P11+
2026 Season Results
| Round | Race | Result |
|---|---|---|
| R01 | Australian GP | P2 |
| R02 | Chinese GP | P1 |
| R03 | Japanese GP | P1 |
Head-to-Head vs George Russell
Qualifying
2-1
Race
2-1
Points
-4
Predictions
Open
Antonelli on the podium in Japan
52% Yes
Incorrect
Antonelli on the podium in Australia
40% Yes
Result: Yes. Antonelli P2 on debut. Model gave 40% — close but favoured No.
Incorrect
Antonelli on the podium in China
45% Yes
Result: Yes. Antonelli won. Model gave 45% — close call, underestimated his pace.