R03 — JAPANESE GRAND PRIX
Safety car at Suzuka
41%
41% probability that at least one safety car is deployed at Suzuka. High-speed corners increase incident risk. SC deployed in both R01 (3 VSC) and R02 (1 SC).
41%Safety car at Suzuka
46%41%64%
41% [46%–64%] (95% CI)
01 / KEY FACTORS
Impact by factor
R01-R02 SC rate (100%)
+10.8%
Suzuka high-speed corners
+7.5%
2026 PU reliability issues
+6.8%
22 cars on the grid
+4.1%
Run-off improvements
-3.5%
Degner curves risk
+3.2%
March weather uncertainty
+1.8%
Impact total+30.7%
02 / MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
Distribution and quantitative analysis
10,000 simulations Monte Carlo
Position Distribution
10,000 simulationsDistribution Statistics
N Simulations10k paths
ExpectedP1.4
MedianP1
ModeP1
Std Dev0.49
Skewness+0.49 →
VaR 95%P2
CVaR 95%P2
Prob(P1)62.0%
Prob(Podium)100.0%
Prob(Points)100.0%
Prob(DNF)3.0%
Convergence
Scenario Analysis — Safety car at Suzuka
| Scenario | Position | Prob. | Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best case (P5) | 2+ SC | 28% | Rain or mixed conditions, multiple incidents in heavy braking zones |
| Optimistic (P25) | SC + VSC | 42% | At least one safety car plus virtual safety car from mechanical failure |
| Base case (P50) | 1 SC | 62% | Standard safety car deployment from first-lap incident or debris |
| Conservative (P75) | VSC only | 18% | Only virtual safety car from isolated retirement on track |
| Worst case (P95) | No SC | 8% | Clean race, no incidents, all retirements in pit lane or gravel traps |
Sensitivity Analysis
03 / FEATURE ANALYSIS
Variable analysis
Base value5.0%
Output41%
5.0%
41%
circuit_sc_rate+12.4%
braking_zone_severity+8.7%
pu_reliability_avg+6.3%
grid_size+4.1%
technical_sections+3.5%
rain_probability-3.8%
track_temperature-2.1%
Feature importance
circuit_sc_rate
0.195
braking_zone_severity
0.151
pu_reliability_avg
0.122
grid_size
0.098
track_temperature
0.085
rain_probability
0.078
technical_sections
0.065
drs_zone_count
0.052
altitude_correction
0.038
season_round
0.028
Feature correlations
sc_rate
braking
pu_reliabil…
grid_size
rain_prob
temp
sc_rate
braking
pu_reliabil…
grid_size
rain_prob
temp
-1.0
0
+1.0
04 / MODEL VALIDATION
Model performance
Model performance
Accuracy0.710+0.130 vs baseline
Brier Score0.041-0.006 vs baseline
Log Loss0.612
AUC-ROC0.785
Calibration curve
Confusion matrix
Predicted vs Actual75% accuracy
Track characteristics
Accuracy
75%
across 127 race winner predictions
Average Brier score
0.041
probability calibration
Last correct
China R2
China R2 — SC deployed (Stroll stranded)
05 / CIRCUIT ANALYSIS
Circuit factors
Suzuka history
Last 4 races
2019
SC
2023
No SC
2024
SC + VSC
2025
SC
Practice pace
Gap to leader (sec)
Tyre degradation
Lap time, laps 1-20
Lap 1Cliff ~L12Lap 20
06 / EVOLUTION & DATA
Probability over time
Training Data Sample4 rows x 8 cols